Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 244 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 244 ATL 07:05 → TPA 08:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest F9 3054 ATL 19:38 → TPA 21:16 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 244 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 07:05	TPA 08:30	6%	1%	17.1%	100%
DL 2605 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	TPA 08:54	7%	2%	17.2%	93%
DL 1227 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:38	TPA 10:07	9%	2%	17.2%	91%
DL 1587 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:00	TPA 11:29	12%	3%	17.2%	82%
DL 1099 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	TPA 12:39	13%	3%	17.2%	85%
DL 1525 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:46	TPA 14:13	15%	3%	17.2%	80%
DL 1167 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:57	TPA 15:27	15%	4%	17.2%	71%
DL 759 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:25	TPA 16:58	22%	5%	17.2%	70%
DL 1425 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:25	TPA 17:59	22%	5%	17.2%	74%
DL 1594 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:22	TPA 18:57	22%	6%	17.2%	66%
DL 1560 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	TPA 00:29	24%	7%	12.9%	72%
DL 1457 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:22	TPA 19:54	24%	7%	17.2%	69%
F9 3782 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:03	TPA 11:40	25%	11%	17.3%	72%
DL 1720 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:59	TPA 21:30	26%	6%	17.2%	75%
DL 1591 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:59	TPA 22:30	26%	7%	12.8%	62%
WN 245 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 18:30	TPA 20:05	31%	8%	15.4%	42%
F9 2912 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:14	TPA 18:52	37%	15%	17.4%	66%
F9 3054 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 19:38	TPA 21:16	40%	15%	17.4%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON