tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: DL 937 at 11:59 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 937 Delta Flight history → ATL 11:59 TUS 12:35 14% 3% 0.6% 87%
DL 1251 Delta Flight history → ATL 21:05 TUS 21:49 25% 5% 0.7% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tucson is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 2h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest 8h 56m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526 3h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 20:30 → TUS 21:29DL 4054 · flown by SkyWest 9h 09m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → ATL 07:30 → DEN 08:51UA 340 2h 39m Denver DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188 8h 02m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827 3h 25m Los Angeles LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50DL 3776 · flown by SkyWest 9h 35m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → ATL 15:57 → IAH 17:23UA 3992 · flown by Mesa 2h 37m Houston IAH 20:00 → TUS 20:42UA 4040 · flown by Mesa 7h 45m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 3h 04m Los Angeles LAX 19:21 → TUS 20:59DL 3846 · flown by SkyWest 9h 14m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15UA 532 1h 17m Houston IAH 09:32 → TUS 10:07UA 6219 · flown by Mesa 6h 02m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → ATL 07:48 → PHX 09:00AA 1777 1h 05m Phoenix PHX 10:05 → TUS 11:09AA 6369 · flown by SkyWest 6h 21m 91% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ATL 18:00 → SFO 20:10UA 285 47m San Francisco SFO 20:57 → TUS 23:26UA 5688 · flown by SkyWest 8h 26m 75% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON