Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Newark, leaving 06:07, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Traverse City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ATL 06:07 → EWR 08:25UA 299	2h 11m Newark	EWR 10:36 → TVC 13:00UA 3588 · flown by Republic	6h 53m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:30 → BOS 11:06DL 2432	3h 00m Boston	BOS 14:06 → TVC 16:39DL 5821 · flown by Republic	8h 09m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	5h 29m	97%	84%
American Details →	ATL 06:00 → PHL 08:10AA 3270	2h 20m Philadelphia	PHL 10:30 → TVC 12:47AA 5480 · flown by PSA	6h 47m	99%	84%
American Details →	ATL 05:00 → CLT 06:25AA 5507 · flown by PSA	2h 45m Charlotte	CLT 09:10 → TVC 11:39AA 5433 · flown by PSA	6h 39m	99%	80%
American Details →	ATL 06:00 → DCA 07:59AA 5501 · flown by PSA	3h 21m Washington	DCA 11:20 → TVC 13:27AA 4138 · flown by Envoy	7h 27m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	3h 06m Detroit	DTW 16:02 → TVC 17:15DL 3965 · flown by SkyWest	6h 15m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:00 → DTW 08:54DL 1646	3h 21m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → TVC 13:27DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest	6h 27m	99%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ATL 19:04 → ORD 20:30UA 1046	55m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:54UA 3572 · flown by Republic	4h 50m	74%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON