Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 5–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3051 ATL 08:20 → VPS 08:31 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 882 ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3051 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:20	VPS 08:31	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2048 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:15	VPS 10:29	7%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 3092 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:20	VPS 12:29	9%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2832 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:50	VPS 14:00	11%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 2803 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:28	VPS 18:42	13%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 3097 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:15	VPS 23:29	13%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 3083 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:05	VPS 16:21	14%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 882 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:35	VPS 20:49	15%	4%	0.7%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON