Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 15–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4441 ATL 22:49 → XNA 23:50 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest DL 2771 ATL 17:14 → XNA 18:05 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 4441 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 22:49	XNA 23:50	15%	6%	0.8%	72%
DL 4082 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 10:15	XNA 11:10	16%	7%	0.7%	81%
DL 4442 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 13:51	XNA 14:44	16%	8%	0.7%	65%
DL 2771 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:14	XNA 18:05	18%	6%	0.7%	60%
DL 5339 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 08:05	XNA 08:59	15%	5%	1.9%	85%
DL 5128 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 15:45	XNA 16:41	23%	14%	0.6%	77%
DL 5130 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 21:15	XNA 22:13	35%	18%	4.3%	65%
DL 5159 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 19:28	XNA 20:24	37%	17%	0.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON