Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 1436 at 05:31, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1436 Delta Flight history →	ATW 05:31	ATL 08:43	6%	4%	0.8%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856	4h 19m	92%	83%
Delta Details →	ATW 14:05 → DTW 16:30DL 4696 · flown by Endeavor	3h 05m Detroit	DTW 19:35 → ATL 21:44DL 2045	6h 39m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:27 → MSP 12:48DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor	3h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → ATL 19:41DL 1028	7h 14m	96%	80%
United Details →	ATW 06:20 → ORD 07:51UA 4639 · flown by SkyWest	2h 38m Chicago	ORD 10:29 → ATL 13:44UA 2684	6h 24m	92%	80%
Delta Details →	ATW 16:10 → MSP 17:40DL 3861 · flown by SkyWest	2h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 19:49 → ATL 23:44DL 1032	6h 34m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	ATW 06:00 → MSP 07:20DL 4995 · flown by Endeavor	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	4h 54m	90%	79%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	1h 29m Detroit	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983	4h 54m	90%	78%
American Details →	ATW 05:00 → ORD 06:14AA 3763 · flown by Envoy	2h 16m Chicago	ORD 08:30 → ATL 11:33AA 1363	5h 33m	99%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ATW 17:29 → ORD 18:58UA 4633 · flown by SkyWest	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → ATL 23:30UA 2770	5h 01m	73%	60%
United Details →	ATW 15:44 → ORD 17:05UA 4391 · flown by GoJet	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 18:20 → ATL 21:41UA 1398	4h 57m	71%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON