Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 5021 at 15:58, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5021 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATW 15:58	CLT 19:22	20%	10%	2.7%	54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATW 05:31 → ATL 08:43DL 1436	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190	4h 55m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Detroit	DTW 10:37 → CLT 12:24DL 2684	4h 24m	93%	83%
American Details →	ATW 05:00 → ORD 06:14AA 3763 · flown by Envoy	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → CLT 12:12AA 2530	6h 12m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	ATW 16:10 → MSP 17:40DL 3861 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	6h 34m	95%	81%
United Details →	ATW 06:20 → ORD 07:51UA 4639 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Chicago	ORD 10:26 → CLT 13:50UA 3450 · flown by Republic	6h 30m	92%	79%
Delta Details →	ATW 06:00 → MSP 07:20DL 4995 · flown by Endeavor	3h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819	6h 57m	92%	79%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:27 → MSP 12:48DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor	2h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821	6h 22m	91%	79%
American Details →	ATW 06:00 → DFW 08:49AA 3673 · flown by Envoy	3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	8h 36m	97%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ATW 15:44 → ORD 17:05UA 4391 · flown by GoJet	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 18:15 → CLT 21:29UA 1748	4h 45m	71%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON