tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 255 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 255 United Flight history → ATW 08:45 DEN 10:31 9% 5% 0.6% 89%
G4 1561 Allegiant Flight history → ATW 16:57 DEN 18:28 20% 8% 0.6% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ATW 08:15 → ORD 09:45UA 4190 · flown by GoJet 3h 11m Chicago ORD 12:56 → DEN 14:46UA 1150 7h 31m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → ATW 05:31 → ATL 08:43DL 1436 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 11:55 → DEN 13:00DL 706 8h 29m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest 3h 17m Detroit DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648 7h 45m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → ATW 10:37 → ORD 11:59UA 4637 · flown by SkyWest 2h 34m Chicago ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803 6h 54m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → ATW 17:29 → ORD 18:58UA 4633 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Chicago ORD 21:50 → DEN 23:48UA 377 7h 19m 93% 78%
UnitedDetails → ATW 06:20 → ORD 07:51UA 4639 · flown by SkyWest 3h 03m Chicago ORD 10:54 → DEN 12:45UA 581 7h 25m 92% 77%
DeltaDetails → ATW 06:00 → MSP 07:20DL 4995 · flown by Endeavor 3h 40m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → DEN 12:05DL 2927 7h 05m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → ATW 12:24 → ORD 13:46UA 4170 · flown by GoJet 2h 26m Chicago ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769 6h 49m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ATW 10:37 → ORD 11:59UA 4637 · flown by SkyWest 57m Chicago ORD 12:56 → DEN 14:46UA 1150 5h 09m 75% 63%
UnitedDetails → ATW 17:29 → ORD 18:58UA 4633 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Chicago ORD 20:00 → DEN 22:01UA 767 5h 32m 70% 59%
UnitedDetails → ATW 15:44 → ORD 17:05UA 4391 · flown by GoJet 1h 12m Chicago ORD 18:17 → DEN 20:22UA 1974 5h 38m 71% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON