Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3673 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ATW 06:00	DFW 08:49	8%	4%	1.0%	91%
AA 3977 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ATW 12:39	DFW 15:25	11%	4%	0.9%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ATW 08:15 → ORD 09:45UA 4190 · flown by GoJet	3h 20m Chicago	ORD 13:05 → DFW 15:48UA 2290	7h 33m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	ATW 05:31 → ATL 08:43DL 1436	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961	5h 41m	95%	84%
United Details →	ATW 08:45 → DEN 10:31UA 255	3h 14m Denver	DEN 13:45 → DFW 16:51UA 578	8h 06m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest	3h 20m Detroit	DTW 12:45 → DFW 14:32DL 1041	7h 32m	99%	82%
American Details →	ATW 05:00 → ORD 06:14AA 3763 · flown by Envoy	3h 26m Chicago	ORD 09:40 → DFW 12:13AA 3052	7h 13m	100%	80%
United Details →	ATW 10:37 → ORD 11:59UA 4637 · flown by SkyWest	3h 41m Chicago	ORD 15:40 → DFW 18:22UA 793	7h 45m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	ATW 16:10 → MSP 17:40DL 3861 · flown by SkyWest	2h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → DFW 22:21DL 2967	6h 11m	95%	78%
United Details →	ATW 06:20 → ORD 07:51UA 4639 · flown by SkyWest	2h 38m Chicago	ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:12UA 441	6h 52m	92%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ATW 11:15 → ORD 12:32AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	53m Chicago	ORD 13:25 → DFW 15:59AA 1120	4h 44m	74%	55%
United Details →	ATW 17:29 → ORD 18:58UA 4633 · flown by SkyWest	52m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673	5h 07m	65%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON