Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4176 ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 4440 ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 4176 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATW 07:00	DTW 09:25	8%	8%	0.9%	85%
DL 4166 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATW 18:33	DTW 20:57	14%	6%	0.7%	77%
DL 4440 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATW 11:09	DTW 13:30	15%	9%	0.7%	75%
DL 4696 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 14:05	DTW 16:30	21%	7%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON