Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 08:45, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


G4 1560 Allegiant Flight history →	ATW 07:00	LAS 08:46	8%	5%	0.8%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATW 05:31 → ATL 08:43DL 1436	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	7h 29m	95%	83%
United Details →	ATW 08:15 → ORD 09:45UA 4190 · flown by GoJet	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → LAS 14:45UA 777	8h 30m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421	8h 28m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	ATW 06:00 → MSP 07:20DL 4995 · flown by Endeavor	1h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	6h 31m	90%	78%
United Details →	ATW 06:20 → ORD 07:51UA 4639 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 11:00 → LAS 13:05UA 2440	8h 45m	92%	76%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	3h 05m Detroit	DTW 16:35 → LAS 17:51DL 766	8h 42m	96%	74%
United Details →	ATW 10:37 → ORD 11:59UA 4637 · flown by SkyWest	3h 55m Chicago	ORD 15:54 → LAS 17:57UA 1875	9h 20m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:27 → MSP 12:48DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor	2h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542	6h 43m	89%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ATW 17:29 → ORD 18:58UA 4633 · flown by SkyWest	52m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → LAS 21:59UA 2242	6h 30m	65%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON