Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3763 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 3763 ATW 05:00 → ORD 06:14 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 4633 ATW 17:29 → ORD 18:58 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3763 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ATW 05:00	ORD 06:14	8%	4%	3.6%	91%
UA 4639 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATW 06:20	ORD 07:51	11%	7%	2.6%	89%
AA 3391 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ATW 11:15	ORD 12:32	19%	5%	2.0%	89%
AA 3410 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ATW 19:15	ORD 20:55	20%	7%	2.6%	73%
UA 4637 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATW 10:37	ORD 11:59	22%	12%	2.2%	68%
UA 4633 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATW 17:29	ORD 18:58	31%	13%	2.0%	60%
UA 4170 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 12:24	ORD 13:46	12%	5%	1.6%	88%
UA 4190 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 08:15	ORD 09:45	14%	7%	0.0%	86%
UA 4383 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 14:40	ORD 15:59	36%	19%	8.9%	64%
UA 4391 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 15:44	ORD 17:05	40%	11%	5.4%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON