Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4929 at 09:22, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4929 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 09:22	ASE 10:50	17%	9%	1.1%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361	47m Denver	DEN 07:45 → ASE 08:46UA 5444 · flown by SkyWest	4h 07m	92%	81%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:30 → ASE 10:01AA 6388 · flown by SkyWest	6h 00m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946	2h 24m Los Angeles	LAX 17:12 → ASE 20:25DL 3704 · flown by SkyWest	7h 45m	97%	80%
United Details →	AUS 12:15 → IAH 13:20UA 1747	3h 24m Houston	IAH 16:44 → ASE 18:34UA 5917 · flown by SkyWest	7h 19m	99%	80%
American Details →	AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19AA 579	3h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:50 → ASE 12:21AA 4912 · flown by SkyWest	7h 21m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	58m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → ASE 11:22DL 4011 · flown by SkyWest	6h 57m	95%	78%
American Details →	AUS 08:40 → DFW 09:58AA 3401 · flown by Envoy	2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:21 → ASE 13:44AA 6384 · flown by SkyWest	6h 04m	99%	77%
United Details →	AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966	3h 17m Houston	IAH 09:50 → ASE 11:40UA 5814 · flown by SkyWest	7h 10m	99%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AUS 12:55 → DEN 14:14UA 1541	53m Denver	DEN 15:07 → ASE 16:08UA 5773 · flown by SkyWest	4h 13m	71%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON