Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 251 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 251 AUS 05:30 → ATL 08:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 4702 AUS 13:33 → ATL 17:06 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 251 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 05:30	ATL 08:45	4%	1%	0.5%	96%
DL 1344 Delta Flight history →	AUS 05:25	ATL 08:47	5%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 1258 Delta Flight history →	AUS 06:25	ATL 09:45	5%	3%	0.7%	94%
DL 2899 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:15	ATL 11:26	8%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 2976 Delta Flight history →	AUS 10:35	ATL 13:54	9%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 2886 Delta Flight history →	AUS 12:09	ATL 15:35	12%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 2011 Delta Flight history →	AUS 13:31	ATL 17:00	13%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 1397 Delta Flight history →	AUS 16:55	ATL 20:29	16%	5%	0.7%	80%
DL 2104 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:00	ATL 18:25	16%	4%	0.7%	79%
DL 1491 Delta Flight history →	AUS 18:24	ATL 21:59	17%	5%	0.8%	76%
WN 255 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 21:55	ATL 01:20	23%	9%	0.6%	42%
WN 254 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 15:05	ATL 18:30	24%	6%	0.5%	40%
F9 4702 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 13:33	ATL 17:06	35%	12%	0.9%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON