Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 256 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 256 AUS 07:10 → BNA 09:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 261 AUS 17:40 → BNA 19:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 256 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 07:10	BNA 09:15	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
WN 4319 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 08:25	BNA 10:30	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 3960 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 08:25	BNA 10:43	11%	5%	0.5%	79%
WN 258 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 12:10	BNA 14:15	18%	4%	0.6%	61%
DL 3945 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 15:34	BNA 18:02	22%	10%	0.5%	60%
DL 4163 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 18:57	BNA 21:18	22%	9%	0.6%	72%
WN 259 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 16:30	BNA 18:40	30%	9%	0.5%	39%
WN 261 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 17:40	BNA 19:50	33%	11%	0.6%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON