Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2098 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 2098 AUS 07:20 → BOS 12:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 638 AUS 18:42 → BOS 23:50 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2098 Delta Flight history →	AUS 07:20	BOS 12:29	6%	3%	0.7%	88%
B6 1238 JetBlue Flight history →	AUS 10:12	BOS 15:21	19%	8%	0.7%	77%
WN 1898 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 11:40	BOS 16:40	21%	5%	0.6%	64%
DL 1297 Delta Flight history →	AUS 17:45	BOS 22:55	25%	12%	0.7%	57%
DL 1156 Delta Flight history →	AUS 14:30	BOS 19:42	26%	11%	0.7%	56%
B6 638 JetBlue Flight history →	AUS 18:42	BOS 23:50	38%	19%	0.8%	50%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	AUS 05:25 → BWI 09:40WN 967	1h 00m Baltimore	BWI 10:40 → BOS 12:10WN 887	5h 45m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	AUS 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 274	1h 00m Dallas	DAL 07:40 → BOS 12:25WN 4291	5h 50m	98%	87%
United Details →	AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966	57m Houston	IAH 07:30 → BOS 12:28UA 1977	5h 58m	94%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON