tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2411 at 16:50, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2411 Southwest Flight history → AUS 16:50 BUR 17:55 35% 12% 0.6% 38%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:50 → LAS 06:35WN 321 1h 10m Las Vegas LAS 07:45 → BUR 09:00WN 3327 5h 10m 100% 92%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 06:40 → PHX 07:00WN 374 1h 15m Phoenix PHX 08:15 → BUR 09:40WN 3243 5h 00m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:20 → SFO 07:05UA 1348 1h 28m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363 6h 37m 97% 84%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 08:15 → SJC 09:45WN 398 2h 25m San Jose SJC 12:10 → BUR 13:20WN 3661 7h 05m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:00 → MDW 07:30WN 4961 2h 35m Chicago MDW 10:05 → BUR 12:25WN 2741 9h 25m 100% 83%
AlaskaDetails → AUS 07:15 → PDX 09:25AS 541 1h 24m Portland PDX 10:49 → BUR 13:13AS 1384 7h 58m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 1h 26m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 6h 18m 97% 81%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 08:05 → DAL 09:10WN 1271 2h 45m Dallas DAL 11:55 → BUR 13:05WN 4076 7h 00m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → AUS 11:35 → LAS 12:20WN 323 50m Las Vegas LAS 13:10 → BUR 14:25WN 2203 4h 50m 71% 53%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 17:55 → LAS 18:45WN 329 1h 10m Las Vegas LAS 19:55 → BUR 21:10WN 2202 5h 15m 69% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON