Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 967 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 967 AUS 05:25 → BWI 09:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 3385 AUS 17:25 → BWI 21:40 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 967 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 05:25	BWI 09:40	3%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 4252 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 08:55	BWI 13:10	9%	2%	0.6%	79%
WN 267 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 11:15	BWI 15:30	12%	3%	0.6%	74%
WN 3385 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 17:25	BWI 21:40	31%	11%	0.6%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON