Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 269 at 13:05, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 269 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 13:05	CHS 16:45	15%	5%	0.7%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361	2h 52m Denver	DEN 09:50 → CHS 15:14UA 1003	8h 35m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	AUS 05:25 → BWI 09:40WN 967	1h 55m Baltimore	BWI 11:35 → CHS 13:15WN 899	6h 50m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 10:30 → CHS 14:15DL 2463	7h 05m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 10:46 → CHS 12:00DL 3107	5h 35m	96%	84%
United Details →	AUS 06:09 → EWR 10:56UA 1760	1h 14m Newark	EWR 12:10 → CHS 14:16UA 1760	7h 07m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:42DL 2179	6h 17m	99%	83%
United Details →	AUS 06:40 → ORD 09:39UA 1878	56m Chicago	ORD 10:35 → CHS 14:06UA 3646 · flown by Republic	6h 26m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → CHS 15:53DL 1381	6h 38m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AUS 17:30 → MIA 21:30AA 1411	46m Miami	MIA 22:16 → CHS 23:59AA 2948	5h 29m	56%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON