tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 270 Southwest Flight history → AUS 10:55 CMH 14:35 11% 3% 0.5% 79%
DL 4028 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → AUS 09:23 CMH 13:17 11% 5% 0.6% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:25 → BWI 09:40WN 967 1h 05m Baltimore BWI 10:45 → CMH 12:10WN 4524 5h 45m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 274 1h 20m Dallas DAL 08:00 → CMH 11:20WN 4386 4h 45m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → AUS 06:40 → ORD 09:39UA 1878 3h 09m Chicago ORD 12:48 → CMH 15:28UA 3554 · flown by Republic 7h 48m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:20 → DTW 09:21DL 1040 2h 59m Detroit DTW 12:20 → CMH 13:27DL 5774 · flown by Republic 7h 07m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 2h 37m Denver DEN 09:35 → CMH 14:28UA 480 7h 49m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → AUS 12:00 → DTW 16:02DL 1218 3h 52m Detroit DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic 8h 02m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:00 → MDW 07:30WN 4961 3h 35m Chicago MDW 11:05 → CMH 13:15WN 114 7h 15m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522 5h 23m 96% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → AUS 15:27 → ORD 18:35AA 1574 54m Chicago ORD 19:29 → CMH 22:03AA 3447 · flown by Envoy 5h 36m 71% 58%
DeltaDetails → AUS 14:30 → SLC 16:39DL 3908 · flown by SkyWest 46m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → CMH 22:52DL 2230 7h 22m 69% 53%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 15:35 → MDW 18:05WN 360 55m Chicago MDW 19:00 → CMH 21:15WN 4043 4h 40m 70% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON