Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3624 AUS 14:30 → CVG 18:00 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time Riskiest G4 368 AUS 17:49 → CVG 21:21 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3624 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 14:30	CVG 18:00	22%	7%	0.6%	43%
G4 368 Allegiant Flight history →	AUS 17:49	CVG 21:21	27%	9%	0.6%	52%
DL 5005 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	AUS 10:30	CVG 14:12	17%	9%	0.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON