Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 274 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 274 AUS 05:35 → DAL 06:40 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 1255 AUS 20:10 → DAL 21:15 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 274 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 05:35	DAL 06:40	2%	1%	0.7%	98%
WN 1271 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 08:05	DAL 09:10	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
WN 910 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 12:10	DAL 13:15	17%	3%	0.7%	73%
WN 277 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 16:05	DAL 17:15	23%	7%	0.7%	62%
WN 280 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 21:55	DAL 23:05	28%	10%	0.7%	53%
WN 2134 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 19:05	DAL 20:10	28%	9%	0.7%	57%
WN 1255 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 20:10	DAL 21:15	31%	10%	0.7%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON