tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via New Orleans, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 281 Southwest Flight history → AUS 12:25 DCA 16:40 24% 6% 0.6% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 1h 13m Houston IAH 07:46 → DCA 11:56UA 2047 5h 26m 96% 87%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:01 → ORD 09:00AA 1064 1h 45m Chicago ORD 10:45 → DCA 13:59AA 4809 · flown by Republic 6h 58m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 2h 32m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 8h 20m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983 6h 38m 97% 86%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:10 → MSY 06:35WN 4942 55m New Orleans MSY 07:30 → DCA 11:00WN 222 4h 50m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177 6h 41m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 1h 34m Houston IAH 09:47 → DCA 13:57UA 2670 5h 47m 98% 84%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:40 → HOU 06:40WN 301 1h 35m Houston HOU 08:15 → DCA 12:20WN 1701 5h 40m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → AUS 17:40 → DFW 19:05AA 6410 · flown by SkyWest 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 5h 19m 69% 50%
AmericanDetails → AUS 13:52 → PHL 18:32AA 1423 53m Philadelphia PHL 19:25 → DCA 20:41AA 5019 · flown by PSA 5h 49m 69% 48%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 15:30 → MCO 19:25WN 4720 55m Orlando MCO 20:20 → DCA 22:50WN 2627 6h 20m 66% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON