Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 282 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 282 AUS 05:45 → DEN 07:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 2573 AUS 18:35 → DEN 20:05 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 282 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 05:45	DEN 07:00	3%	1%	0.6%	95%
UA 361 United Flight history →	AUS 05:39	DEN 06:58	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
DL 3876 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 07:25	DEN 08:48	7%	4%	0.6%	92%
UA 595 United Flight history →	AUS 08:30	DEN 09:49	7%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 2574 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 08:10	DEN 09:20	8%	2%	0.6%	71%
WN 4523 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 09:30	DEN 10:40	9%	2%	0.6%	75%
UA 779 United Flight history →	AUS 11:27	DEN 12:45	10%	4%	0.6%	92%
F9 1815 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 06:30	DEN 07:49	10%	4%	0.7%	88%
UA 1541 United Flight history →	AUS 12:55	DEN 14:14	12%	5%	0.6%	96%
WN 1680 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 10:45	DEN 11:55	12%	3%	0.5%	70%
UA 2447 United Flight history →	AUS 14:45	DEN 16:22	13%	7%	0.6%	82%
WN 3399 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 12:10	DEN 13:20	18%	4%	0.5%	70%
UA 439 United Flight history →	AUS 18:29	DEN 20:00	19%	6%	0.6%	68%
WN 753 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 13:15	DEN 14:25	20%	4%	0.5%	28%
WN 294 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 19:30	DEN 21:05	21%	8%	0.6%	71%
F9 2047 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 14:25	DEN 15:54	23%	8%	0.7%	70%
DL 3669 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 16:49	DEN 18:14	24%	7%	0.6%	66%
WN 290 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 17:35	DEN 19:05	26%	9%	0.6%	53%
WN 2573 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 18:35	DEN 20:05	26%	9%	0.6%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON