Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2563 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 2563 AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 6410 AUS 17:40 → DFW 19:05 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2563 American Flight history →	AUS 05:01	DFW 06:12	5%	3%	0.8%	93%
AA 579 American Flight history →	AUS 06:00	DFW 07:19	5%	4%	0.8%	91%
AA 2928 American Flight history →	AUS 07:00	DFW 08:20	8%	4%	0.8%	82%
AA 3401 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AUS 08:40	DFW 09:58	10%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 1413 American Flight history →	AUS 11:37	DFW 12:50	12%	6%	0.8%	81%
AA 1396 American Flight history →	AUS 10:42	DFW 11:56	12%	5%	0.8%	79%
AA 4095 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AUS 13:56	DFW 15:10	13%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 3726 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AUS 15:44	DFW 16:58	18%	5%	0.8%	72%
AA 3402 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AUS 18:54	DFW 20:11	18%	6%	0.9%	62%
AA 1402 American Flight history →	AUS 12:40	DFW 13:54	19%	8%	0.8%	37%
AA 3400 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AUS 16:55	DFW 18:11	19%	6%	0.9%	67%
AA 1397 American Flight history →	AUS 14:44	DFW 16:03	21%	8%	0.7%	66%
AA 5574 American flown by PSA Flight history →	AUS 19:48	DFW 21:15	27%	11%	2.1%	60%
AA 6410 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 17:40	DFW 19:05	29%	13%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON