Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3767 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 12:43	ECP 15:02	17%	8%	0.6%	77%
WN 295 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 12:15	ECP 14:15	19%	5%	0.8%	54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 05:00 → MDW 07:30WN 4961	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 08:40 → ECP 10:50WN 2773	5h 50m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	5h 23m	96%	87%
United Details →	AUS 14:18 → IAH 15:24UA 334	2h 41m Houston	IAH 18:05 → ECP 20:03UA 4826 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 45m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → ECP 12:31DL 1359	6h 06m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823	5h 39m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053	7h 20m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	AUS 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 274	2h 45m Dallas	DAL 09:25 → ECP 11:20WN 3032	5h 45m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	AUS 13:31 → ATL 17:00DL 2011	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → ECP 20:46DL 2494	7h 15m	99%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AUS 18:04 → IAH 19:10UA 1326	51m Houston	IAH 20:01 → ECP 21:58UA 4343 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 54m	66%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON