Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1760 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 1760 AUS 06:09 → EWR 10:56 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 286 AUS 16:22 → EWR 21:14 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1760 United Flight history →	AUS 06:09	EWR 10:56	4%	2%	0.8%	93%
UA 1449 United Flight history →	AUS 07:05	EWR 11:50	6%	2%	0.9%	93%
UA 1435 United Flight history →	AUS 10:10	EWR 15:00	13%	6%	0.8%	79%
UA 1711 United Flight history →	AUS 19:07	EWR 23:59	23%	11%	0.9%	65%
UA 286 United Flight history →	AUS 16:22	EWR 21:14	32%	14%	0.8%	56%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966	47m Houston	IAH 07:20 → EWR 11:59UA 1886	5h 29m	91%	83%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:20 → DTW 09:21DL 1040	54m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577	5h 36m	94%	83%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:00 → EWR 11:31AA 1820	5h 30m	91%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON