Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 2272 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–36%.

Safest bet that day B6 2272 AUS 07:00 → FLL 10:52 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 1972 AUS 15:04 → FLL 18:58 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 2272 JetBlue Flight history →	AUS 07:00	FLL 10:52	15%	5%	1.1%	86%
B6 2372 JetBlue Flight history →	AUS 13:00	FLL 16:53	28%	12%	1.2%	73%
WN 300 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 19:25	FLL 23:15	34%	13%	2.6%	38%
B6 1972 JetBlue Flight history →	AUS 15:04	FLL 18:58	36%	15%	1.1%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON