Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 525 AUS 07:30 → IAD 11:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 376 AUS 17:00 → IAD 21:19 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 525 United Flight history →	AUS 07:30	IAD 11:48	6%	3%	0.6%	95%
UA 2344 United Flight history →	AUS 12:00	IAD 16:19	11%	5%	0.6%	89%
UA 376 United Flight history →	AUS 17:00	IAD 21:19	15%	5%	0.6%	89%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	51m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135	4h 46m	89%	78%
Allegiant Details →	AUS 08:42 → TYS 12:03G4 1424	50m Knoxville	TYS 12:53 → IAD 14:26G4 1439	4h 44m	87%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON