Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 313 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 313 AUS 06:20 → IND 09:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 319 AUS 20:35 → IND 23:55 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 313 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 06:20	IND 09:40	4%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 4101 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 07:10	IND 10:54	10%	5%	0.6%	87%
DL 4027 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 14:03	IND 17:47	16%	7%	0.5%	86%
DL 3731 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 19:15	IND 22:58	20%	8%	0.6%	81%
WN 927 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 15:20	IND 18:45	27%	7%	0.5%	83%
WN 319 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 20:35	IND 23:55	33%	11%	0.5%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON