tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 3772 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → AUS 10:11 JAX 13:51 13% 7% 0.9% 87%
WN 320 Southwest Flight history → AUS 10:40 JAX 14:10 14% 4% 0.7% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:00 → MDW 07:30WN 4961 1h 10m Chicago MDW 08:40 → JAX 12:00WN 4499 6h 00m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:25 → BWI 09:40WN 967 1h 55m Baltimore BWI 11:35 → JAX 13:35WN 970 7h 10m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923 5h 35m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024 6h 20m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 06:40 → ORD 09:39UA 1878 1h 03m Chicago ORD 10:42 → JAX 14:27UA 2427 6h 47m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 1h 02m Houston IAH 07:35 → JAX 10:56UA 6146 · flown by Mesa 4h 26m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 3h 57m Houston IAH 12:10 → JAX 15:37UA 4048 · flown by Mesa 7h 27m 100% 82%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 07:10 → BNA 09:15WN 256 50m Nashville BNA 10:05 → JAX 12:35WN 541 4h 25m 92% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 18:04 → IAH 19:10UA 1326 52m Houston IAH 20:02 → JAX 23:22UA 2293 4h 18m 67% 52%
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa 50m Houston IAH 18:15 → JAX 21:41UA 4035 · flown by Mesa 4h 31m 64% 50%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 18:45 → HOU 19:45WN 4255 50m Houston HOU 20:35 → JAX 23:55WN 4797 4h 10m 52% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON