Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 321 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 321 AUS 05:50 → LAS 06:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 329 AUS 17:55 → LAS 18:45 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 321 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 05:50	LAS 06:35	4%	1%	0.6%	97%
WN 322 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 09:25	LAS 10:10	12%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 323 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 11:35	LAS 12:20	20%	4%	0.6%	66%
DL 2260 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:29	LAS 16:20	26%	11%	0.7%	72%
F9 3645 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 12:47	LAS 13:40	29%	11%	0.9%	77%
WN 4143 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 15:50	LAS 16:40	32%	11%	0.6%	32%
WN 102 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 22:20	LAS 23:10	32%	13%	0.6%	41%
WN 330 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 20:30	LAS 21:15	36%	13%	0.6%	36%
WN 329 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 17:55	LAS 18:45	37%	13%	0.6%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON