Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 332 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 332 AUS 05:10 → LAX 06:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 65 AUS 22:15 → LAX 23:25 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 332 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 05:10	LAX 06:15	5%	1%	0.6%	95%
UA 4642 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 06:00	LAX 07:40	5%	3%	0.6%	97%
AA 6185 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 07:06	LAX 08:37	11%	5%	0.6%	86%
DL 306 Delta Flight history →	AUS 07:30	LAX 08:37	12%	4%	0.7%	92%
UA 5841 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 14:10	LAX 15:40	12%	5%	0.5%	90%
DL 946 Delta Flight history →	AUS 13:40	LAX 14:48	12%	4%	0.7%	90%
AA 6409 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 15:11	LAX 16:37	14%	5%	0.5%	85%
DL 986 Delta Flight history →	AUS 16:15	LAX 17:20	21%	5%	0.7%	68%
WN 333 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 12:45	LAX 13:50	22%	4%	0.6%	72%
DL 1584 Delta Flight history →	AUS 20:30	LAX 21:43	23%	6%	0.8%	84%
AA 1291 American Flight history →	AUS 20:40	LAX 21:53	29%	9%	0.7%	72%
WN 334 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 17:30	LAX 18:45	32%	10%	0.6%	47%
WN 65 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 22:15	LAX 23:25	33%	9%	0.6%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON