Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4915 at 13:15, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4915 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 13:15	LGB 14:10	22%	5%	0.5%	38%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 05:50 → LAS 06:35WN 321	1h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 07:55 → LGB 09:05WN 276	5h 15m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	AUS 06:40 → PHX 07:00WN 374	1h 35m Phoenix	PHX 08:35 → LGB 09:55WN 165	5h 15m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	AUS 05:40 → HOU 06:40WN 301	1h 05m Houston	HOU 07:45 → LGB 09:00WN 2019	5h 20m	95%	83%
Southwest Details →	AUS 13:15 → DEN 14:25WN 753	3h 50m Denver	DEN 18:15 → LGB 20:00WN 1037	8h 45m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618	53m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	5h 44m	88%	77%
Southwest Details →	AUS 09:30 → DEN 10:40WN 4523	2h 45m Denver	DEN 13:25 → LGB 14:50WN 4259	7h 20m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	AUS 09:25 → LAS 10:10WN 322	1h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 11:35 → LGB 12:45WN 2260	5h 20m	94%	74%
Delta Details →	AUS 12:20 → SLC 14:09DL 2671	56m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:05 → LGB 16:06DL 3793 · flown by SkyWest	5h 46m	83%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	AUS 17:55 → LAS 18:45WN 329	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 20:00 → LGB 21:10WN 2031	5h 15m	72%	47%
Southwest Details →	AUS 15:25 → PHX 15:50WN 376	50m Phoenix	PHX 16:40 → LGB 17:55WN 149	4h 30m	62%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON