tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 342 at 14:10, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 342 Southwest Flight history → AUS 14:10 MAF 15:20 21% 6% 0.7% 61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 274 1h 00m Dallas DAL 07:40 → MAF 09:00WN 801 3h 25m 98% 92%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:40 → HOU 06:40WN 301 2h 50m Houston HOU 09:30 → MAF 10:55WN 2022 5h 15m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 08:05 → DAL 09:10WN 1271 2h 35m Dallas DAL 11:45 → MAF 12:55WN 4579 4h 50m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:57 → MAF 11:15AA 3651 · flown by Envoy 6h 14m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 3h 02m Houston IAH 09:35 → MAF 11:07UA 6186 · flown by Mesa 5h 37m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → AUS 08:40 → DFW 09:58AA 3401 · flown by Envoy 2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:32 → MAF 13:49AA 3652 · flown by Envoy 5h 09m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 3h 07m Denver DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59UA 5333 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 12:15 → IAH 13:20UA 1747 3h 15m Houston IAH 16:35 → MAF 18:15UA 6233 · flown by Mesa 6h 00m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → AUS 18:35 → DEN 20:05WN 2573 50m Denver DEN 20:55 → MAF 23:45WN 3473 5h 10m 67% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON