Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4941 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4941 AUS 07:00 → MCI 08:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 345 AUS 17:25 → MCI 19:20 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4941 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 07:00	MCI 08:50	5%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 3650 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 07:10	MCI 09:19	10%	3%	0.6%	93%
WN 1563 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 12:35	MCI 14:30	17%	4%	0.5%	69%
DL 3577 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 17:05	MCI 19:16	23%	9%	0.6%	63%
WN 345 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 17:25	MCI 19:20	30%	8%	0.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON