Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4146 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 4146 AUS 05:20 → MCO 09:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 352 AUS 17:05 → MCO 20:50 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4146 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 05:20	MCO 09:00	3%	1%	10.4%	85%
DL 2259 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:00	MCO 11:40	8%	3%	15.6%	87%
WN 2116 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 07:45	MCO 11:25	9%	2%	15.7%	92%
WN 349 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 10:15	MCO 13:55	13%	3%	17.4%	76%
F9 4524 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 10:42	MCO 14:45	17%	8%	18.6%	80%
DL 2529 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:50	MCO 19:57	24%	8%	16.8%	64%
WN 2529 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 14:45	MCO 18:30	28%	9%	17.2%	45%
WN 4720 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 15:30	MCO 19:25	29%	10%	16.7%	62%
WN 353 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 18:05	MCO 21:50	31%	12%	17.3%	71%
WN 352 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 17:05	MCO 20:50	32%	11%	17.2%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON