Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4961 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4961 AUS 05:00 → MDW 07:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 361 AUS 21:10 → MDW 23:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4961 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 05:00	MDW 07:30	3%	1%	0.6%	92%
WN 4077 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 10:25	MDW 12:55	10%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 359 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 13:25	MDW 15:55	19%	4%	0.6%	59%
WN 360 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 15:35	MDW 18:05	27%	7%	0.6%	18%
WN 361 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 21:10	MDW 23:45	28%	7%	0.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON