tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 3952 at 19:55, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 3952 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → AUS 19:55 MEM 21:48 19% 10% 0.8% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:00 → MDW 07:30WN 4961 2h 35m Chicago MDW 10:05 → MEM 11:40WN 2824 6h 40m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:40 → HOU 06:40WN 301 2h 45m Houston HOU 09:25 → MEM 10:55WN 4013 5h 15m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 6h 07m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 3h 42m Houston IAH 11:55 → MEM 13:41UA 5758 · flown by SkyWest 6h 31m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → AUS 08:40 → DFW 09:58AA 3401 · flown by Envoy 2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:37 → MEM 14:16AA 3676 · flown by Envoy 5h 36m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937 5h 07m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 13:40 → MEM 13:57DL 1681 5h 42m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 1h 16m Denver DEN 11:05 → MEM 14:26UA 1112 5h 56m 96% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → AUS 17:40 → DFW 19:05AA 6410 · flown by SkyWest 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:55 → MEM 21:27AA 3262 3h 47m 67% 43%
AmericanDetails → AUS 17:30 → MIA 21:30AA 1411 58m Miami MIA 22:28 → MEM 23:55AA 1551 6h 25m 64% 40%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 18:45 → HOU 19:45WN 4255 50m Houston HOU 20:35 → MEM 22:15WN 4745 3h 30m 52% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON