Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 406 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 406 AUS 05:02 → MIA 08:58 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1411 AUS 17:30 → MIA 21:30 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 406 American Flight history →	AUS 05:02	MIA 08:58	8%	3%	1.5%	91%
AA 2294 American Flight history →	AUS 07:00	MIA 11:00	13%	4%	1.6%	86%
DL 2507 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:35	MIA 12:35	13%	4%	2.6%	90%
AA 1417 American Flight history →	AUS 10:45	MIA 14:39	25%	7%	4.0%	77%
WN 362 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 11:50	MIA 15:40	25%	7%	1.3%	67%
AA 620 American Flight history →	AUS 12:05	MIA 16:00	29%	8%	1.7%	67%
AA 1411 American Flight history →	AUS 17:30	MIA 21:30	34%	10%	1.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON