tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4916 at 19:20, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4916 Southwest Flight history → AUS 19:20 MKE 22:00 22% 12% 0.6% 50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:25 → BWI 09:40WN 967 1h 05m Baltimore BWI 10:45 → MKE 11:50WN 1011 6h 25m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 10:51 → MKE 11:53DL 1151 6h 28m 96% 88%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:00 → MDW 07:30WN 4961 2h 50m Chicago MDW 10:20 → MKE 11:05WN 1702 6h 05m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242 1h 05m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → MKE 11:17DL 561 5h 07m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → MKE 13:50DL 1246 7h 25m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 2h 59m Denver DEN 09:57 → MKE 13:25UA 1836 7h 46m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:50 → LAS 06:35WN 321 2h 30m Las Vegas LAS 09:05 → MKE 14:35WN 4337 8h 45m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:45 → DEN 07:00WN 282 3h 15m Denver DEN 10:15 → MKE 13:40WN 1626 7h 55m 100% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 17:20 → ORD 20:21UA 1990 59m Chicago ORD 21:20 → MKE 22:29UA 5362 · flown by SkyWest 5h 09m 71% 54%
UnitedDetails → AUS 18:04 → IAH 19:10UA 1326 47m Houston IAH 19:57 → MKE 22:45UA 5297 · flown by SkyWest 4h 41m 58% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON