Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4942 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 4942 AUS 05:10 → MSY 06:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4424 AUS 18:50 → MSY 20:20 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4942 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 05:10	MSY 06:35	4%	1%	1.6%	93%
WN 366 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 10:50	MSY 12:15	13%	3%	0.6%	69%
DL 4016 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 13:26	MSY 15:11	18%	8%	0.7%	80%
WN 4207 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 15:10	MSY 16:40	26%	7%	0.8%	61%
WN 4424 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 18:50	MSY 20:20	34%	13%	6.6%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON