Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4368 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 18:15	OAK 19:55	32%	10%	0.5%	8%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 05:50 → LAS 06:35WN 321	2h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 08:35 → OAK 10:10WN 1254	6h 20m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	AUS 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 274	2h 10m Dallas	DAL 08:50 → OAK 10:30WN 1268	6h 55m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	AUS 05:10 → LAX 06:15WN 332	2h 45m Los Angeles	LAX 09:00 → OAK 10:20WN 3014	7h 10m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	AUS 06:40 → PHX 07:00WN 374	2h 40m Phoenix	PHX 09:40 → OAK 11:35WN 2680	6h 55m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	AUS 06:45 → SAN 07:35WN 4469	2h 15m San Diego	SAN 09:50 → OAK 11:25WN 4166	6h 40m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	AUS 05:45 → DEN 07:00WN 282	3h 55m Denver	DEN 10:55 → OAK 12:25WN 1577	8h 40m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	AUS 05:00 → MDW 07:30WN 4961	2h 40m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → OAK 12:40WN 3366	9h 40m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	AUS 05:40 → HOU 06:40WN 301	55m Houston	HOU 07:35 → OAK 09:30WN 2056	5h 50m	94%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	AUS 17:55 → LAS 18:45WN 329	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 19:50 → OAK 21:25WN 4270	5h 30m	66%	40%
Alaska Details →	AUS 14:59 → SAN 16:05AS 3084 · flown by SkyWest	50m San Diego	SAN 16:55 → OAK 18:33AS 2190 · flown by Horizon	5h 34m	66%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON