Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1878 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1878 AUS 06:40 → ORD 09:39 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1990 AUS 17:20 → ORD 20:21 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1878 United Flight history →	AUS 06:40	ORD 09:39	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 1064 American Flight history →	AUS 06:01	ORD 09:00	6%	3%	1.0%	84%
UA 202 United Flight history →	AUS 08:20	ORD 11:17	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
AA 1726 American Flight history →	AUS 07:59	ORD 10:59	9%	5%	1.0%	80%
UA 456 United Flight history →	AUS 13:01	ORD 15:57	16%	6%	0.6%	72%
UA 1625 United Flight history →	AUS 15:37	ORD 18:39	22%	8%	0.6%	68%
AA 1398 American Flight history →	AUS 18:26	ORD 21:39	23%	9%	1.1%	60%
AA 1574 American Flight history →	AUS 15:27	ORD 18:35	26%	9%	0.9%	52%
UA 1990 United Flight history →	AUS 17:20	ORD 20:21	27%	7%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON