tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:39, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 541 Alaska Flight history → AUS 07:15 PDX 09:25 8% 2% 0.8% 90%
AS 1396 Alaska Flight history → AUS 17:41 PDX 19:50 16% 5% 0.7% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242 2h 00m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → PDX 12:38DL 2167 8h 28m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 1h 07m Denver DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47UA 1247 6h 08m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:20 → SFO 07:05UA 1348 1h 17m San Francisco SFO 08:22 → PDX 10:20UA 2265 7h 00m 97% 88%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:50 → LAS 06:35WN 321 2h 45m Las Vegas LAS 09:20 → PDX 11:40WN 4132 7h 50m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 274 1h 15m Dallas DAL 07:55 → PDX 09:55WN 1377 6h 20m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 3h 38m Denver DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455 8h 43m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 9h 33m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 2h 57m Houston IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56UA 740 8h 26m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → AUS 12:47 → LAS 13:40F9 3645 50m Las Vegas LAS 14:30 → PDX 16:54F9 1105 6h 07m 62% 41%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 20:30 → LAS 21:15WN 330 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 22:15 → PDX 00:35 +1WN 199 6h 05m 64% 41%
AlaskaDetails → AUS 19:07 → SEA 21:35AS 339 54m Seattle SEA 22:29 → PDX 23:30AS 1457 6h 23m 60% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON