Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2774 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2774 AUS 07:30 → PHL 12:05 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1423 AUS 13:52 → PHL 18:32 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2774 American Flight history →	AUS 07:30	PHL 12:05	10%	4%	0.7%	85%
AA 1407 American Flight history →	AUS 12:08	PHL 16:50	20%	8%	0.7%	68%
AA 1423 American Flight history →	AUS 13:52	PHL 18:32	20%	9%	0.7%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	AUS 07:10 → BNA 09:15WN 256	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 10:15 → PHL 13:20WN 623	5h 10m	95%	82%
United Details →	AUS 17:00 → IAD 21:19UA 376	51m Dulles	IAD 22:10 → PHL 23:20UA 3502 · flown by Republic	5h 20m	76%	67%
Delta Details →	AUS 15:00 → ATL 18:25DL 2104	50m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	5h 20m	77%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON