Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 374 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 374 AUS 06:40 → PHX 07:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 378 AUS 21:35 → PHX 22:00 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 374 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 06:40	PHX 07:00	4%	1%	0.6%	96%
AA 455 American Flight history →	AUS 06:16	PHX 06:40	8%	5%	0.6%	90%
DL 3747 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 08:30	PHX 09:00	15%	6%	0.6%	80%
WN 375 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 11:45	PHX 12:05	16%	4%	0.6%	80%
AA 2042 American Flight history →	AUS 12:04	PHX 12:28	17%	8%	0.6%	83%
AA 3181 American Flight history →	AUS 14:35	PHX 15:01	23%	9%	0.6%	79%
WN 376 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 15:25	PHX 15:50	28%	9%	0.6%	63%
WN 4426 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 19:40	PHX 20:05	32%	12%	0.6%	46%
WN 378 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 21:35	PHX 22:00	33%	14%	0.7%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON