tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
G4 1106 Allegiant AUS 10:50 PIT 14:50 15% 6% 0.7% no record
WN 4890 Southwest Flight history → AUS 14:05 PIT 18:00 22% 9% 0.5% 52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:25 → BWI 09:40WN 967 1h 00m Baltimore BWI 10:40 → PIT 11:45WN 1052 5h 20m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → AUS 06:40 → ORD 09:39UA 1878 3h 01m Chicago ORD 12:40 → PIT 15:23UA 3432 · flown by Republic 7h 43m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → AUS 07:35 → JFK 12:25DL 1411 2h 45m New York JFK 15:10 → PIT 17:15DL 5685 · flown by Republic 8h 40m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 6h 27m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353 6h 35m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 3h 07m Denver DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308 8h 37m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 1h 02m Houston IAH 07:35 → PIT 11:25UA 2607 4h 55m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 3h 47m Houston IAH 12:00 → PIT 15:56UA 315 7h 46m 100% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → AUS 13:52 → PHL 18:32AA 1423 52m Philadelphia PHL 19:24 → PIT 21:00AA 347 6h 08m 66% 53%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 15:30 → MCO 19:25WN 4720 50m Orlando MCO 20:15 → PIT 22:50WN 2685 6h 20m 63% 32%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 14:45 → MCO 18:30WN 2529 50m Orlando MCO 19:20 → PIT 21:50WN 3451 6h 05m 62% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON