tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 931 at 13:55, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 931 Southwest Flight history → AUS 13:55 PNS 15:45 18% 4% 0.5% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 274 2h 55m Dallas DAL 09:35 → PNS 11:25WN 3796 5h 50m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640 6h 35m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198 5h 26m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013 6h 58m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211 6h 28m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196 3h 35m Houston IAH 14:20 → PNS 16:06UA 4869 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 31m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:00 → PNS 08:57AA 3748 · flown by Envoy 3h 56m 91% 81%
DeltaDetails → AUS 12:09 → ATL 15:35DL 2886 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 18:10 → PNS 18:23DL 3059 6h 14m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → AUS 10:45 → MIA 14:39AA 1417 52m Miami MIA 15:31 → PNS 16:34AA 3749 · flown by Envoy 5h 49m 71% 50%
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa 47m Houston IAH 18:12 → PNS 19:58UA 6195 · flown by Mesa 3h 48m 54% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON