Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4516 at 09:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4516 AUS 09:15 → RDU 13:05 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest WN 382 AUS 21:05 → RDU 01:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4516 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 09:15	RDU 13:05	10%	3%	0.6%	79%
WN 382 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 21:05	RDU 01:05	27%	8%	0.6%	81%
DL 4921 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	AUS 09:52	RDU 14:07	17%	8%	0.0%	83%
DL 4967 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	AUS 19:43	RDU 21:45	25%	11%	0.4%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON